PROMETEIA’S forecast for the Italian economy

The decline in Italy’s GDP in Q1-2022 has yet to reflect the impact of the war.

Despite the 0.2% qoq decline in Q1-2022 GDP, which was less than our estimate, Prometeia has not substantially revised its forecast annual growth (2.2% vs 2.3%).

Prometeia expects the consequences of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the strict Covid-19 containment measures being applied in China to hamper GDP growth, especially in the Q2-2022, leading to a “technical recession”.

This scenario is very much contingent on geopolitical events. In particular, Prometeia assumes that there will not be a sudden embargo of Russian gas supplies but a progressive reduction of imports.

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Fonte: trending topics Prometeia